Waiting for the decision of the ICC on al - Bashir

Turkish government tries to explain its policy on al-Bashir in terms of real politics. First of all there is a belief that what lies behind the prosecution of al-Bashir is partly some of the western countries desire to see Sudan dismantled so that they can better exploit the riches of that country. For those who are not familiar with the issue let’s remind at this stage that the Christian south is rich with oil whereas the north, where the central government is located, is predominantly Muslim. The Turkish government is for the territorial unity of Sudan. It looks like the government is of the view that the presence of al-Bashir is indispensable to keep Sudan’s territorial integrity. Once he is gone, the Turkish side believes that Sudan will slide into civil war and the dismemberment will be inevitable. The Turkish side also reminds of the reaction of the 53-nation African Union, which said earlier this month it would lobby for a one year suspension of the case, which it argued could threaten the peace process in Sudan. The Turkish side claims that even the south does not want to see al-Bashir gone. The atrocities in Darfur have been raised with al-Bashir’s government, according to Turkish officials. But they are not a reason to suspend relations with al-Bashir. Actually there is a need for influential actors and if one wants to remain an influential actor, then it’s better to maintain good relations.

According to the critics of this policy, it is wrong to "invest" in al-Bashir. Although AKP opponents also share the view that some Western countries would like to see Sudan divided, they do not share the argument that al-Bashir is indispensable to keeping the territorial unity of the country. "al-Bashir keeps the country by killing, terrorizing people and spreading fear. It is inevitable that he will be toppled from the government at one stage," says one critic familiar with Turkish policy in Africa. According to critics, there are two driving forces behind the AKP’s policies: business deals of some businessmen close to the AKP and religious affinity. Meanwhile AKP opponents are also pointing to the fact that while Abdullah Gül followed a more cautious policy on Sudan while he was foreign minister, it has been Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s position that has been decisive on the policies for Sudan. The requests from al-Bashir to send envoys to Turkey were turned down while Gül was foreign minister. The sale of small arms and ammunition was suspended during the same period, despite objections from some AKP parliamentarians. The ruling of the ICC might be decisive on Turkey’s future policy on Sudan. Although Turkey is not a signatory to the ICC’s founding Rome Statute, it will be extremely difficult to defend having a working relationship with al-Bashir, if the Court in The Hague, issues an arrest warrant.