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Nabucco taken hostage by the Nagorno-Karabakh problem
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It looks like the storm in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations has lost its intensity. It is, however, not possible to say the same for the confidence crisis that has erupted in Baku vis a vis Ankara. The confidence based on the motto "one nation two states" seems to have received a big blow due to the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation talks.
Actually one should rather talk about a loss of confidence between the Aliyev administration and the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The criticism voiced by the Azerbaijani press was lately targeting the AKP and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan specifically. The reason behind the confidence crisis lies in the Azerbaijani claim that they are being left in the dark about the Turkish-Armenian talks.
The administration has been using the press to voice its reaction to Ankara. Nowadays, Azerbaijani officials are no longer hiding their frustration about Turkey. In a speech he delivered recently in the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, the deputy foreign minister, Araz Azimov, said the Turkish side has not shared the documents that are being exchanged between the Turks and the Armenians about the timetable and the conditions of the normalizations of relations.
He said it’s been sad to learn the existence and the content of the documents from the Minsk group, the diplomatic group tasked by the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, which includes European as well as Russian diplomats.
Azimov also said in the conference, which was open to the representatives of foreign embassies and the non governmental organizations, that their proposal to coordinate Turkish-Armenian talks with negotiations conducted for Nagorno Karabkh was turned down by Ankara, as well as the proposal to reach an understanding on when the borders should be opened and under which conditions.
The Turkish side says it is informing Baku. Azerbaijani officials claim the opposite. It might be difficult at this stage to properly establish which side is telling the truth and which side is manipulating public opinion. What is real is the Azerbaijani anger.
As to the loss of confidence, we have a test case which will tell us to what degree the confidence crisis is real: the Nabucco project. It will be highly difficult to expect Azerbaijan to commit its gas to Nabucco, the natural gas pipeline project supported by the European Union to end its dependence on Russia.
This is President İlham Aliyev’s only tool of pressure if he wants to stop the Turkish government opening the borders before substantial progress on Nagorno Karabakh has been made. He has been telling the European delegations visiting him that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceypan oil pipeline has not proven to be that beneficial, that the cheapest way to transport gas and oil to the international market is via Russia since the proper infrastructure already exists from the Azerbaijani frontier.
No doubt, talks with Armenia are proving a headache not only for the Turkish Foreign Ministry but for the Energy Ministry as well.
The administration has been using the press to voice its reaction to Ankara. Nowadays, Azerbaijani officials are no longer hiding their frustration about Turkey. In a speech he delivered recently in the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, the deputy foreign minister, Araz Azimov, said the Turkish side has not shared the documents that are being exchanged between the Turks and the Armenians about the timetable and the conditions of the normalizations of relations.
He said it’s been sad to learn the existence and the content of the documents from the Minsk group, the diplomatic group tasked by the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, which includes European as well as Russian diplomats.
Azimov also said in the conference, which was open to the representatives of foreign embassies and the non governmental organizations, that their proposal to coordinate Turkish-Armenian talks with negotiations conducted for Nagorno Karabkh was turned down by Ankara, as well as the proposal to reach an understanding on when the borders should be opened and under which conditions.
The Turkish side says it is informing Baku. Azerbaijani officials claim the opposite. It might be difficult at this stage to properly establish which side is telling the truth and which side is manipulating public opinion. What is real is the Azerbaijani anger.
As to the loss of confidence, we have a test case which will tell us to what degree the confidence crisis is real: the Nabucco project. It will be highly difficult to expect Azerbaijan to commit its gas to Nabucco, the natural gas pipeline project supported by the European Union to end its dependence on Russia.
This is President İlham Aliyev’s only tool of pressure if he wants to stop the Turkish government opening the borders before substantial progress on Nagorno Karabakh has been made. He has been telling the European delegations visiting him that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceypan oil pipeline has not proven to be that beneficial, that the cheapest way to transport gas and oil to the international market is via Russia since the proper infrastructure already exists from the Azerbaijani frontier.
No doubt, talks with Armenia are proving a headache not only for the Turkish Foreign Ministry but for the Energy Ministry as well.
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