Anxiety in Baku as Turkey Armenia nears reconciliation

In fact, it was already disclosed prior to Gül’s visit that the two countries’ diplomats have been holding secret meetings from time to time to seek ways to normalize relations, but the substance of the talks which took place in some European cities had never been revealed. With Gül’s visit, the secret talks became official but the secrecy over the content still continues.

If we compare it for instance with the exploratory talks conducted between Turks and Greeks for more than five years, we have at least an idea of the frequency of the meetings through the statements made by the two governments on the place and date of the meetings. We don’t even know where and when Turkish and Armenian diplomats are meeting. This also stems from the fact that there is no diplomatic relations between the two sides.

Azerbaijani Press critical of Turkey

In order to understand to what degree they are close to an agreement, one should look to the Azerbaijani press. Whenever the likelihood of Turkish Armenian reconciliation would increase, Baku would become extremely anxious. When you scan now a day the Azerbaijani press you can easily sense the feeling of alarm. The Turkish government is under fire from the Azerbaijani press who fear Turkey will reconcile with Armenia at the expense of Azerbaijan. Since we can easily say that the Azeri press is not the most democratic press in the world, one could assert that the criticism against Turkey in the press reflects the resentment of Ilham Aliyev administration. The gist of the matter lays on whether the solution to the Nagorno Karabagh problem is part of the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. Basically, Turkish side is expecting Yerevan to stop encouraging the diaspora for the recognition of 1915 killings of Armenians as genocide, accept the establishment of a joint commission to investigate the 1915 events and recognize the Turkish borders in exchange for opening the borders and establishment of diplomatic relations.

In the past, especially at the first half of 1990s, the Turkish side linked the normalizations of relations to a solution on Nagorno Karabagh. In time this linkage has weakened. At one stage the Turkish side even promised to open the borders once Armenians started to withdraw from the Azeri territories they have occupied adjacent to Nagorno Karabagh.

Now a day the Turkish diplomats say there is no organic linkage between the two but a psychological one. This rhetoric angers Baku. "A Turkish-Armenian reconciliation would naturally facilitate Armenian-Azeri reconciliation, a solution to Nagorno Karabagh will obviously fasten Turkish-Armenian agreement. The two will affect each other positively." This rhetoric coming from Ankara is perceived in Baku, as "there will first be a Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, then peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan will follow." In the eyes of Azerbaijani government, there should first be agreement between Baku and Yerevan, since the only incentive there is for Armenians to find a solution in Nagorno Karabagh is normalization of relations with Turkey. If Turks and Armenians reach an agreement before a solution to Nagorno Karabagh, Baku believes it will become highly difficult to convince the Armenians for a solution based on compromise.

It appears that the U. S. government will press Turkey and Armenia for a compromise before April 24. A historic decision is awaiting the government of what it will get from Armenia in exchange for opening the borders and establishment of diplomatic relations. No doubt, reconciliation with Armenia and its implications to relations with Azerbaijan will be the most important foreign policy challenge facing the government right after the local elections.