Mithat Melen

Our contemporaries in Turkey have seen many economic crises since their childhood. Actually, we are used to them. The generation before ours lived through many wars, tried to survive through squalor and famines. Our mothers and fathers have a past full of periods of unhapiness and deprivation. There is an unforgettable anecdote my uncle told me. He was a boarding student at the Aircraft Mechanics School in Eskişehir. On weekends they were free to go out and were paid two and a half liras. At the time there was nothing to buy nor anywhere to go in Eskişehir.

After he finished school he went to do his military service and sent the money he had collected in Eskişehir to his mother. Probably today, the inhabitants of Eskişehir would not believe the story.

Our generation was not raised in deprivation, but we all felt very insecure. We always were afraid of living or reliving the events of the past when we remembered what our parents and elders had told us about those difficult days. We were raised by these people who had felt all the sufferings and deprivations. And on the other hand, also the pains of a community which lived through a transitional period to become a consumer society. Just remember. When we were primary school children every second week of December we used to celebrate the "Native Products Week." From these celebrations I only remember eating oranges and dried fruits.

The fashion was to use native products from that era. The ones wearing imported clothes were laughed at. "Did your father also wear imported material?," we used to smirk at them. But there was an undertone of jealousy in those words. There were also these black markets where contraband imported clothing and blue jeans were sold. The ones who lived in Ankara will remember the American Markets.

The first economic crisis and the pains of it were felt in 1958 with the devaluation of the Turkish lira. Turkey stopped almost all imports. A bill to defend the national economy was passed through Parliament. Two years later the Democrat Party Government was toppled through a coup d’etat partly because of the economic crisis. In 1970 we had another crisis and in 1971 the Justice Party Government was toppled through a coup by military memorandum. In 1980 we had the third serious economic crisis and on Sept. 12, the same year, this time the coalition government of Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel was the target of the last military coup.

During all that time the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, is always there. We have to squeeze our belts and enter into difficulties. In the 1990s we had two recurrent economic crises but this time thankfully the change was not undemocratic. In 2001 we were hit by a serious economic crisis. And now the recent oneÉ Today we are thankful because it is the first time that we feel these economic difficulties almost simultaneously with the outside world.

A friend of mine living in Zurich called me on Sunday asking me what I think about the recent news that Turkish banks will block all accounts. "It cannot be done when the governments are planning to give full guarantees to all bank accounts," I replied. But after talking to certain well-informed sources I realized the rumor is very rampant. This is also a psychological issue. Because for years we lived in an insecure atmosphere and always expected the worst to happen. We are not completely unjustified in feeling insecure. We are never certain about what tomorrow will bring us.

Before every economic crises government officials preach about how the economic atmosphere is sunny and rosy. Then at the end of the day we see black clouds covering the sky. Turks, instead of trying to find solutions to these problems, prefer to resort to illegal means to gain money. They are aware that nothing will happen when they are caught. They think they guarantee themselves by putting aside $100 million or so. They cultivate their small ambitions.

People who were unable to manage the economy dragged Turkey into this recent state. They never told the truth. What is more, whenever they saw their chance they tried to assuage their small ambitions. Now nobody has any confidence any more. Everybody is worried about the future.

Even I, who is a person who can call himself an intellectual, cannot help but be concerned about even a small peace of gossip. This is not psychological, but a lack of confidence in the country and its political leaders. Another reason is related to Turkey being unable to become a country of law and order after all these years. We push aside law and order even when we prepare a bill in parliament. And nobody can blame the other any more. Because there is no end to all these small ambitions.

Winter has not yet reached Muğla and its bays. In Akyaka you can eat in the garden wearing only a light jacket. You can throw bread crumbs to spoiled geese bathing in the creek. Despite only having a bread crumb diet, they have become very fat. Coming downhill from the Bodrum-Milas airport toward the Gökova coast, the magnificent view bewitches you. From Dalyan to Köyceğiz to Fethiye, everywhere is beautiful. On one side the mountains and on the other the blue sea and the creeks, everywhere is historical. Sitting in Dalyan Square you can see the Kaunos ancient city. The river boats are lined up like a bracelet. But all of them are empty. Although winter has not arrived and the weather is still very warm nobody can be seen. The weather seems to ask, "I have not gone cold yet, so why is nobody here?"

We are attending a conference, "The Economic Crisis and Turkey," organized by the MHP regional branch for Muğla and Milas. The conference halls are full of people wanting to learn about whatever is going to happen to Turkey in the near future. Everybody is listening attentively and afterward ask very wise and good questions. Seeing the rising concern and awareness among people makes me glad. Nobody wants a crisis to strike Turkey. Everybody is very interested in international development and wishes Turkey will be least harmed by the recent global financial crisis.

People who grumbled about the lack of public interference years ago no longer voice this complaint. The private sector is very aware of the realities of daily life. They say they have their own difficulties, "But we had them before the crisis," they say. "The last one and a half years we have sensed some problems. But now it seems the situation is much more serious," they add.

The main issue is the need for daily funds for small-and-medium- sized-enterprises, or SMEs. Banks, on the other hand, are worried about the near future and feel the need to be careful. They even recall the loans they have paid. To solve this problem the government has to act quickly to take measures and try to solve the real economy sector’s problems.

We proposed an additional article be added to the bill that was to introduce resources to the economy. But the government’s party rejected it outright. If this could be achieved the system would start breathing more easily. It could be a solution to distribute part of the taxes that are intended to be collected under the bill to SMEs. But these are palliative measures. The main issue is to take the necessary measures to comfort the real economy sector.

Following the summit in Washington, the G-20s are restructuring. In addition, Turkey has again called for the help of the IMF. It is obvious that a relationship resembling a stand-by agreement is on the horizon. Giving the IMF an anchor to the Turkish economy may mean confidence to world markets or to Turkish local markets and financial institutions. We will see it more clearly in the near future. On the other hand, initially complaining about being strangulated and then giving in should be extensively debated.

Winter has not yet arrived in Muğla and its surroundings, but the economy is obviously in recession. This is not due to the off-season atmosphere. People are waiting to see what is going to happen next and they feel they have to be careful. Some days ago, I was invited to a TV program. The program-maker, who is a meticulous person, asked me to bring all my books. Afterward we shot a dummy program.

Then a couple of days later this person called my secretary and apologized that the program had been cancelled from "above." The excuse was concern over alarming markets. I do not know if these concerns are felt by the people governing Turkey or if some over-zealous TV station managers are trying to inveigle themselves to the powerful. But I know that everybody in Turkey has the right to learn the truth and have access to the right information.

I, for my part, try to give the correct information and present suggestions for solutions. Both in Muğla and Milas, without entering into political polemics, we voiced the right things to do and our concerns. Also, we showed people ways out of this difficult situation. You may not like what we say but do not be afraid to discuss this. Adopting this attitude and afterward saying, "Neither the government nor the opposition has any proposals or solutions," is not correct, to say the least. First, you should study our proposals and then voice whatever you think. All of us are working for Turkey’s benefit and to strengthen the Turkish economy. Let us unite forces.

The İhtiyar Şahap Mountain Range lies between Van and Tatvan. The main passage of the Kuskunkıran Mountain is at 2,250 meters. The road is busy with traffic. I observe many lorries carrying diesel oil. Every day lorries are on the road to get cheap fuel. The diesel oil from Iran is one-third cheaper than in Turkey. Everybody in the region uses Iranian oil. Unofficially every lorry has the right to fill their tanks once a day with Iranian oil. Every day the tanks grow larger, meaning people start buying lorries with larger tanks. One of the main businesses in the region is diesel oil distribution. "Homeless Primrose" is written in large letters at the back of one lorry. The Homeless Primrose makes a daily trip on these roads. From Gevaş, on the road to Kuskunkıran, we enter the Balaban Gendarmerie station, with our Primrose. We are travelling in an official car. We submit our identities to the Gendarmes. They take our pictures. They search our car. Our friends, the public servants get angry. But, the Gendarmes are just doing their job.

I admit our car was lightly searched. But the poor Primrose was not so lucky. Every vehicle travelling through the pass is thoroughly searched. It is impossible to get out of the pass within two hours. Some people say they have to wait six hours. During the search we had the opportunity to talk to other passengers. "We do not deserve this behaviour," they said. Passengers were also angry with the so-called Kurdish secessionists. "We are going to punish them with our bare hands. We never condoned the demonstrations when the prime minister visited the region," they blurt out passionately.

Whether of Kurdish or Turkish origin, everyone reacted strongly about those who turned Van and its surrounding area into hell, during Erdoğan’s visit. They also had strong reactions toward the government and security forces. They think they did almost nothing to control the demonstrations. For the record, the inhabitants of Van are also very angry at those who forced businesses to close during the visit. "We have been oppressed," they said.

I was invited to speak at a meeting of the Bitlis Young Businessmen Association, or BİGİAD. The Bitlis Cultural Center was full. They organized the meeting perfectly. The subject of the meeting was, "The World and Turkey on the threshold of the Recent Global Crisis: Economic, Financial and Social Developments." The president of BİGİAD, Bilal Dağdağan, delivered a very good speech. "In this region the main thing is to open new businesses, create new jobs and open up to the outside world," he said. In recent years all businessmen from Bitlis who do business out of their homeland, come back to invest here. Examples of this are the Eren University and the Kiler Group.

Questions by young businessmen and their eagerness to participate in debates showed how decisive they are. I was supposed to speak for half an hour. But when I looked at my watch, I realized it had been two hours. It made me happy to see the rising awareness of the importance of economic development there.

In Tatvan there is a new project called Nimrod, or Nemrud. If the government gives it support, it will mean a big transformation of the region. The project consists of mountain, history and nature tourism. You will be able to ski and swim in the thermal lake in the Nimrod Crater, 1,200 meters high. Forty-five kilometers ahead of there is the Seljuk monuments and tombs. There are historical relics everywhere in Bitlis.

I detected a slight pessimism among Van businessmen. The atmosphere in Bitlis was better. It seemed the eagerness for production had diminished in the region, although Turkey’s main problem is in production. I want to stress the core of the problem is economic. We have to have development in the region. We have to increase employment. Let us say we shall not collect taxes for five years in the region and create a master plan to steer the economy, then watch the results. Sometimes uncoordinated struggles for development cause us to make wrong decisions. But the new project, "Development Agencies," will potentially create confusion in the region.

This region and its people belong to us. Nobody should become depressed and think somberly. We are going to do everything in our power to develop the region.

Congratulations. Finally the government admitted the seriousness of the threat of the global financial crisis. We do not hear any more official voices saying, “Thank God, nothing will happen to us.”

“We are caught in the web of a global crisis which has nothing to do with the local economy,” they say. At least they are kind enough to admit that there is a worldwide financial crisis.

“How can we overcome this crisis, with the least damage?” they kindly murmur. And most important of all, these words are voiced in front of foreign officials. “We also think of this crisis as an opportunity,” our government officials challenge.

These words really soothe our concerns.  Sometimes certain crises can be turned into opportunities. My dear friend Osman Arolat always reminds us that in Chinese the word “crises” means both threat and opportunity. We can always turn this crisis into an opportunity but nobody wants to deal with important structural problems.

As if there was nothing to do, we created an argument with the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, about squeezing throats. The issue is not the IMF or the European Union anchor. The important issue is for Turkey to regulate her mid-term economic program. The national budget, which was submitted to the Grand National Assembly floor, is contradicting the program we have. On the other hand, the road the government is following is making every prediction about the upcoming budget impossible.

Next March there will be local elections. The government is at an impasse about taking economic measures and preparing for local elections. But something has to be done. A new package has to be submitted to Parliament. This week only the bill called “The Mevlana legislation,” will be discussed in Parliament. According to the bill, Turkish citizens will bring back money earned in foreign countries without paying any income tax. They are only required to pay a tax of 2 percent for money they have gained.

Most probably the bill will be passed by Parliament next Thursday but it is not clear that it will be a guarantee for money to come from abroad. Because that sum is not as much as we expect in this situation. It is not enough to bring back money and not question its sources. If banks decide at the end of the day to recall all credits they have paid, what will happen?

It is certain that money will be afraid and escape. It is said this measure was taken to soothe the concerns of bank account holders. But in reality by taking this action, banks want to keep themselves happy. Because the source is abroad and paying it back becomes more expensive every day.

We are entering a phase in which both the value of imports and exports are dropping. The gap between foreign financial instruments will increase. The need for local and foreign financing will rise. As there are no new investments there is no economizing. It is clear that we are constantly in need of foreign financial funds. We have to keep a good relationship with foreign money markets. But as those markets are very much involved in solving their own problems, it might be a hard time to attract their attention to Turkey.