Mithat Melen

As I was watching the inauguration ceremony of the new U.S. President Barack Hussein Obama my feeling was that it was just like an enthronement. For years the U.S has not witnessed such a lively and glorious ceremony, I thought. It seems even Americans could not believe that an African American like Barack Obama could be elected president of the U.S, which is known to most the cradle of democracy or to others the world teacher of democracy. The issue is what Obama will do from now on. As he took over the country from scratch, or as we say as he is burdened with the debris of the United States every step he will take will be considered as an achievement.

But the whole world and he has many problems to solve. About $2.5 trillion were pumped to the world economy after the financial crisis. But as the overall loss is $6 trillion to reshape the world economy obviously another huge amount of money is needed.

As the U.S is unable to collect such a colossal amount of money a body like a World Central Bank will have to be set up. But it is impossible to launch such an office of last resort in a very short time.

In the foreign policy arena the timing of the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and transfer of them to Afghanistan is important. Also there is the Iran issue. On the other hand unable to compete with the Atlantic and the Pacific Poles the European Union will have a very hard time in adapting itself to the newly emerging economic order. It is a reality that the next two years will give an economic and political breathing space to the EU. But it is not clear that the promises given by Barack Obama on a reshaping of the world economy and bring international peace will be realized.

Experts who follow the developments in the United States and the EU are well aware that policies across the Atlantic cannot be changed quickly. It is known that the United States will never detract from her policy to support the EU. Now the question is what will be the policy toward Turkey who has applied for a full accession to the EU. Does the United States sincerely want a proximity between Turkey and the EU or does she support the idea of a privileged partnership as is the idea of President Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Merkel of Germany?

Turkey’s prime minister during his recent visit to Brussels insistently underlined the idea of strategic partnership between Turkey and the EU. It is very normal that Turkey should be the EU’s strategic partner as more than half of her foreign trade, almost all her financial relations are with EU countries and 5 million of her citizens live in Europe. But the EU doesn’t see this relationship from Turkey’s eyes as it has its own reasons. The EU should reassess her strategy and evaluate especially her economic relationship with Turkey. Speaking concisely if Turkey cannot negotiate her economic and political issues with her biggest trade partner it means there are some difficulties there.

One of the most important problems of this century is energy security. As Turkey is a bridge between the East and the West, is also a bridge between energy sources and energy consumers. Although Turkey has many difficulties in this region, its democracy survived for more than half a century. Meanwhile, Turkey also has become diplomatically and economically active in her region. She can do many important things for structuring the new world economic order which is emerging following the global financial crisis. Actually Turkey can well start to become an active player contrary to the role she was burdened before of being an actor who played roles cast for her. But to do this Turkey has to clean her problems and launder all the dirt in her own house. If Turkey can achieve and strongly establish a state of law and order then the EU’s and the United States’s approach may change.

Most probably Barack Obama will remain as the president of the United States for the next eight years. We don’t yet know how frequently Turkey has contacts with the present U.S. administration. But we are well aware what Vice President Joe Biden thinks about the upcoming Armenian resolution in the congress and the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Even if the U.S. administration’s approach to these two issues become s clear nobody knows Turkey’s strategy concerning about those issues.

Let’s see what the coming days will bring. It is essential for Turkey to develop her relations with the EU and the United States in every field. Turkey has to produce new strategies concerning the United States and the EU and be open to new changes.

Turkey’s political agenda is so full nobody wants to get involved in economic matters. The recent Ergenekon arrests made us forget whatever is happening in the Gaza Strip and the global economy. The American Economic Association, or AEA, in its recent San Francisco meeting revealed shocking figures. According to the AEA study the per capita, gross domestic product, or GDP, dropped by 9 percent and a period of two years was needed for recuperation. In addition to that four or five years were needed to find solutions to the jobless rate which reached the 12 percent level and the 30 percent drop in real estate prices, according to some studies. Certain news reports say countries’ public debts have increased by 86 percent. The drop in tax revenues raised public losses. The global economic stagnation will be of long duration and deep.

The impact of the economic crisis in Turkey is strengthening each day and is affecting the real sector deeply. Due to the drop in demand from both local and foreign markets and the lack of the needed measures Turkey’s economy is rapidly becoming a stagnating one.

The government seems to be unable to produce a policy of crisis management for the needs of the local economy. Seemingly, the government and the economic bureaucracy have not yet reached a consensus. With regard to the global crisis it is lacking the capacity to meet the Turkish economy’s needs the 2009 budget has become unrealistic and unreliable. It is clear that the need to shape a new budget will appear soon. Additionally, 3.6 billion Turkish lira were cut from the budget at the last moment, depriving the agricultural and all other sectors of the long awaited government supports and also investments are stopped.

It is very difficult to understand the reasons for punishing all these productive sectors. Also, although it was not included in the program a large sum of money was transferred to support municipalities. Concisely speaking, budget revenue figures were increased by 11 percent, the rate of increase for municipalities was 21 percent. Most probably this is called election economy. In order to fund the real sector through the banking sector an economic, legal and organizational atmosphere will be needed. The problems of the small- and medium- size enterprises should be solved realistically. Measures will have to be taken to minimalize the friction between the labor supply and demand to bring down the jobless rate which is one of Turkey’s utmost problems.

In this context to educate the qualified work force needed by the business world all vocational schools should be reconsidered and should be expanded throughout the country. Here I have written excerpts from the National Action Party, or MHP’s press bulletin and the press release of the party’s Committee for Watching and Evaluating the Global Financial Crisis which was published on Jan. 8, 2009. Here is the last sentence published in it: "The most important issue on the country’s agenda is the economic crisis. It is unacceptable to cover up this vital issue with artificial problems." Just a quick word of warning. It is up to you to decide.

A nice and new trend in the world is rapidly affecting Turkey. It is called tourism for senior citizens. Especially elderly women go on cultural and historical tours. In actual fact human age is not in the mind but in the heart. As long as you are healthy no matter what age you are you can feel happy traveling. Do you know why I am writing these sentences? Because on Friday, Jan. 2, 2009, I was driving from Teşvikiye to Ataşehir. Just as I was passing from in front of the İnönü Stadium down to Dolmabahçe I noticed a bus full of Japanese women tourists. It had taken me four hours to reach Ataşehir from Teşvikiye. Most probably they too had to sit in the bus more than four hours and forgetting about the beauties of İstanbul went slowly out of their minds.

Years ago I had broken my own record of crossing from the European side to the Anatolian side which was four hours. But then the city was stranded in piles of snow. This time there was no snow. Streets were empty after the New Year’s Eve celebrations. But both bridges were jammed for no reason at all. Sitting in the car and thinking about the people who are waiting for you at home can slightly drive you crazy. At least thanks to cell phones. People are gossiping about the reason of these traffic jams in Istanbul. It is said that mobile phone operators are jamming the traffic so that they will gain more money. Of course this is a joke and I’m sure you didn’t believe it. But I cannot believe what is happening in this city. But in the end I realized that I forgot certain realities of Istanbul staying away from it for 15 days. The traffic jam was due to the Metrobus road construction.

According to certain experts the metrobus is an interim solution. A permanent solution can only be reached by building the rail system. Let’s say we have agreed to this interim solution. But why do they have to start the construction in the winter instead of summer? Everybody is complaining about the torture they feel crossing from each side to the other. Let me warn you that you will lose all the votes because of this Metrobus construction.

A friend told me. They were sitting in the lobby of a hotel in Cairo waiting for their bus. There was a couple of buses driving in front of the hotel. Then a bell boy came running in calling, "Total crones." My friend and his group started laughing. It turned out that both buses had come to pick them up. Their group had decided to call themselves "Total crones" (in Arabic, külliyen acuze). I asked my friend why they preferred to call themselves total crones or külliyen acuze? "Because we liked the sound of it," she replied. "Do you know the meaning?" I insisted. Apparently "acuze" is the female form of "aciz" which means disabled, helpless and old. "But we are neither disabled nor old. Otherwise how can we travel so often," she blurted. I started laughing helplessly.

I am sure the bus-load of Japanese women I had seen in İstanbul started calling themselves "külliyen acuze." I for one, decided to call myself "aciz" or helpless and disabled while crossing both Bosphorus bridges. Also I am getting to be an elderly person. So the term suits me very well. With one exception. I am not a female. But what about all those females waiting for me at home? Soon we will embrace each other as soon as we achieved to cross to the other side. If you tell me not to use the bridges then you yourselves don’t ask for votes.

The problem is to work together in solidarity to make this most beautiful city in the world more charming. But our first task should be to find a permanent solution to the traffic problem. To achieve it, all car and tire producers, security agents, the Governer’s Office, the municipalities, business people, public workers and the whole nation should get together and really do something.

To write good lines and look hopefully to the coming New Year during the last days of 2008 does not only mean being optimistic. It is a human reality. Actually the whole world entered a severe financial and economic crisis in 2008. This year brought all the difficulties one can imagine on all countries and nations. But the one to be blamed should not be 2008. The point the world reached in 2008 is not the cause but the consequence of early doings. In other words, the total value of world trade was 14 trillion U.S. Dollars, the total World GDP was 62 trillion U.S. dollars and the total funds which were circulating around world markets was 500 trillion U.S. dollars. These numbers are sufficient enough to show you the dimension of the business. But to enable big masses to get even a little share of the world's wealth, maybe the system had to be manipulated, even artificially. In the end, as it is in all systems which are manipulated this one also has crashed. Today the world needs a new economic and financial system.

Turkey on the other hand, had a comfortable time these past five or six years benefiting from the artificial wealth pushed to her side and entered into a consumption spree. The present government introduced us the new era of wealth as its big economic achievement. Of course, relatively we became wealthy. The number of our credit cards increased parallel to the rate of our debts.

We felt very comfortable. From time to time we paid lip service to certain economic problems but never sought to find solutions to them. Even in 2008 the present government didn’t think to pass the necessary bills regarding the economic infra structure. Only certain social security and research and development bills were adopted in Parliament.

The interesting thing is that the 2009 fiscal budget passed in Parliament regardless of the difficulties Turkey will face in the coming year. This means a new fiscal budget will have to be shaped in 2009. What’s more is that Turkey will wave to pay back a total debt of nearly 80-100 billion dollars in 2009. Due to decreasing public funds Turkey has to find sources to pay her debts. To do this, starting from the Treasury, the structure has to change from a debt-seeking one to a project producing one.

On the other hand the Turkish National Assembly will have to follow more closely the new developments in the international economic arena. It is essential to set up a Parliamentary Economic Commission to which every public body, bureaucrat and politician will have to submit periodic reports. Turkey also will need to set up a forum for the years 2009 and 2010 to which every civic society group and every professional chamber will be represented and will study ways to find solutions to economic problems. In democracies you cannot do this kind of work with politicians who will present these studies as their big achievements for election gains. Our biggest problem is the lack of political leadership. Although negative signals are being received nobody is doing anything to produce solutions for the coming problems Turkey will face in 2009.

Actually being optimistic and happy with yourself is a human treat. It is also a scientific reality. The human body guards itself from outside negative impacts by thinking positively. But in a country like Turkey which is situated in such a critical part of the world, which lived through very erratic times during the past 50 years and which has to feed 73 million people, it is not enough to do slight face-lifts to the economy and present it to the public as big achievements. You cannot leave aside all these problems and focus yourself only on the upcoming 29 March municipal elections and afterwards pray for help from forces from above.

Led by the U.S. it is obvious that the world economy will start to recuperate in 2009 and 2010. Immediately we have to start producing economic methods which will adapt the country to the new developments in the world economy. We are aware that crises bring along opportunities. But you have to use these opportunities accordingly and get results.

I wish you all a very happy healthy New Year in 2009 in which there will be no traffic accidents and economic crises.

After many of her football players were transferred to Turkish teams we have started learning about Croatia. Also recently everybody started talking about the beauty of the Dalmatian coasts. In our recent history in almost all wars and agreements you can find the words Croatia or Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Ottoman Empire’s demise started with the loss of the Balkan Peninsula. According to Professor Dr. İlber Ortaylı, Sultan Abdülhamit II’s biggest achievement is not losing an inch of Ottoman territory in all his 33 years on the throne. It is related to his cunning, manipulative diplomacy with the British, the Germans and the French.

Abdülhamit had left the steering of the land forces to the German, the naval forces to the British and the Gendamerie to the French. If you’ll remember the bloody war in the Balkans in the mid-1990s you’ll realize that the war could be stopped only after the largest fox interfered from the Transatlantic region.

Croatia suffered deeply from that war. They fought with all their might against the Serbs. Maybe that’s why today they are a small, but independent country on her way to gaining full accession to the European Union. Croatia’s capital, Zagreb, has a population of 800,000. The total population of Croatia is 4.5 million, 90 percent of it being Catholic Croatian. One percent is Bosnian Muslim. The value of Croatia’s total exports is $13 billion and imports $26 billion. Total trade with Turkey is only $0.5 billion. And the gross domestic product, or GDP is $50 billion.

Croatia’s strategic aim for years has been to be full members of the EU and NATO. Croatia is also putting much emphasis on regional cooperation. Has signed full membership agreement with NATO in July 2008 to become a member in 2009. Croatia started accession negotiations with the EU in 2005. Since then they opened 21 full chapters.

As members of the Turkey-EU Joint Parliamentary Committee members we have met almost all Croatian officials, including the president, in Zagreb for two days. Our impressions from these meetings are very interesting because both the Croatian opposition and the government are fully in consensus toward their strategic aims they want to reach. Croatia has a very strong and efficient chief negotiator and an accession council whose members are civic society groups, led by the opposition. To receive more maybe you will have to give some, but in the end you will be compensated. The diplomatic term for it is to use the upper hand. You can suddenly realize that your upper hand has come down and you quickly react to it by raising your other hand upper.

Croatia has a rising economic growth of 5 percent. The inflation rate in the country is as low as about 2.5 percent. But foreign debts has reached 80 percent of her GDP. Ninety-five percent of the banking system is in the hands of foreign investors. Nobody for the moment is able to predict how the global crisis will hit Croatia.

It will be useful to open a parenthesis at this point. It is apparent that Croatia has prepared herself impeccably for the negotiations with the EU. The chief Croatian negotiator is a professional journalist and diplomat who has worked in New York and Zagreb for many years. When Vladimir Brobnjak was telling us about the technicalities of the negotiations we realized that how difficult a way we had to treat with the EU. But the issue is about the will and the target. Does Turkey have the will to do it? This is not clear. It is not certain that the ones who oppose Turkey’s membership in Europe today will not change their minds tomorrow. Turkey, on her part, is doing the necessary reforms for herself.

"Several competitions are being held and you receive mathematical grades," says Neven, the speaker of the Croatian parliament, as Drobnjak had told us. "Moments are measured by centimeters. But from time to time there are no mathematical criteria during negotiations with the EU. Like it is in gymnastics and ice-skating competitions, referees are giving you certain grades. It is the rights you have got through these grades and the number of chapters opened that determine the fate of the negotiations. Afterward you have to get the ratification by the Commission, the Council and each member state. That’s why the process takes so long," he explained in detail.

The speed of Balkan countries achieving accession to Europe is very fast. We have to watch the region more closely.

Turkey has reached a point that even during the bayram prayers people are killing each other. When the murderer realizes that he is watched by the grand son of the victim he kills him as well. During the bayram holiday in Istanbul each day murders have been committed. We don’t know how many were killed. Five, 10 people? Certain killings are not even in the media. Afterward, newspapers are giving the accounts of the murders in several of their pages. In our neighbor Greece a young boy was killed by police and the country has become a battle field. The nation has risen against the government. But in Turkey we witness several murders in the hands of the police and we don’t care. We even turned around the European Union legislation. We behave as if committing murder is not against EU legislation.

In the evening in Nişantaş and Teşvikiye people open fire from passing cars. Pedestrians are killed or wounded. The same thing happens in Ataşehir. From convoys of cars fires are opened during farewell ceremonies for youngsters who are enrolled for their army duties. Again murders. To celebrate weddings we open fire into the air. It is unthinkable that the ones who abhor terror are creating terror themselves.

Laws are not meeting the requirements of the day. The judiciary is complaining of the system. On the other hand, people are buying more arms. The number of licensed and unlicensed guns are increasing each day. Almost in every family and every home there is at least one gun. They are not bought to be ornaments in the house, they are fired. And you know what happens next.

The rate of jobless in the country is rising; the economy doesn’t give good signals. The year 2009 will be a difficult and painful year for all of us.

Maybe it’s not right to explain everything with economy, but there are also realities. Whenever economic difficulties increase people think there are few thing left to lose. There is no sense of justice left any more. Everybody starts to establish his justice and law.

That’s why all administrations and especially the government has to work very hard to overcome these problems. Let’s look at the past. Whenever a government and government officials were not involved in corruption there was peace and order in the country. But if governments start to get involved in corruption then neither peace nor law and order is left.

We see people whom we don’t know what their profession is, but from their attire they look very affluent. Not only they, but also their sons are wearing expensive signature watches, own yachts and luxury villas. We are not surprised because our community seems to be supporting this behaviour. I wish we could get over the mentality that makes us say, "Let him take what he wants, but at least let’s share it together." I wish we could learn that in fact all that money is taken away from our pockets and will not be returned to us.

Actually what we have to do is not so difficult. In Turkey today it is not enough to have laws to combat corruption. We also need non-corrupt officials who will be able to apply these laws. On the other hand the media also is going to do its job.

It should not support when things are good and withdraw its support when things go down. You have to abandon having double standards. If ever we try to pass a bill from Parliament banning all guns do you think we can pass it or if we pass it do you think we will be able to confiscate all those guns?

We always admire the United States and the EU, but we forget that how stringent and strong their laws are and how adamant they are in applying them.

This bayram holiday we lived through so many unsettling events that we forgot our battle with terrorism and the traffic terror. Again hundreds of people died, wounded. So many families suffered. From time to time I cannot believe that human life can be so cheap.

Everybody living in Turkey has to realize the fact that it is in our hands to turn this country into a liveable or non-liveable place. The only solution is to believe in law and order and turn Turkey into a country which respects law and order.

Hoping not to have to write a similar article the next bayram holiday I wish you all a Merry Christmas, Happy Kurban Bayram and New Year.

We are in Sopot to attend the first Europe-Turkey Forum organized jointly by the Instytut Wschodni and The Center for Turkish-Asian Strategic Studies, or TASAM. Sopot is a small holiday resort on the shores of the Baltic Sea. You may remember that years ago, before the demise of the Soviet Union, the Warszam Pact launched a music festival to undermine the popularity of the Eurovision Music Festival. It was called the Sopot Music Festival. Even a young Turkish singer won a gold medal there. The festival venue, which is an open air theater in a forest, is lovely. To barbecue meat and eat it there is also a new experience. But I can not imagine holding an open air music festival there even in summer. The inhabitants of Sopot say in the summer the sea can be as warm as 22 degrees Celsius, but it is certain that Sopot cannot be compared with the Mediterranean region. I have to tell you that a friend of mine who called me in Sopot was swimming in Antalya.

During the forum, we had more than 10 sessions to attend, in which 130 speakers delivered speeches. In the end I have to admit that our minds became hazy. During the summer Sopot is a summer holiday resort. But during the winter time they turn it into a congress center. Just as we were there Lech Walesa was celebrating his 25th anniversary of receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.

Participants came here from more than 25 countries and voiced their willingness to see Turkey get full accession to the European Union as soon as possible. On the other hand, the EU is continuously speaking about criteria. But nobody is questioning why the last 10 countries, including Poland, could get full accession as none of them had fulfilled the EU criteria. Academics, politicians and opinion makers attending the sessions were fully convinced that Turkey is prepared to choose a new road for herself. They speak about mutual lack of will and confidence.

It is obvious that we are entering an era of new strategic thinking. Nobody has any doubt that Turkey is a very important and big country economically. Another issue is that Turkey is a key country for Europe’s energy security. Turkey is also a bridge between Europe and Russia and a spring board between the Caucasus and the rest of the world. A Turkey which has political and economical stability is very important for the region.

Everybody knows that Turkey both commercially and financially is one of the biggest partners of Europe. They know it and stress the fact, but do not do anything.

Almost all of the participants come from the new members of the EU. Participation from EU’s elites is almost nil. Participation resembles almost the EU- Turkish Joint Parliamentary Commission. In other words small representatives of small countries, which are not in the decision making processes are here. Everybody knows that the global economic and financial crisis is big, but Turkey has no opportunity to hold talks with the EU on economic issues. The reason is that all related chapters remain closed. Economic issues are related to political problems. The world is becoming apart, but they still insist that political matters are of utmost importance.

The EU is taking strong measures to overcome the crisis, banks are bailed out, the Lisbon process is almost forgotten, but nobody is willing to talk economic matters with us. "Go to the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, to solve your economic problems," they say. But the IMF does not have $100 billion to lend us. In addition to this there are the municipal elections to be held in March.

Whenever we found the time in between sessions we took walks around Sopot’s narrow streets. Everywhere you can see the traces of German architecture although Poles do not like the word German. They even call Danzig Gdansk. Nowadays, an American trend is very popular here. Sopot will soon turn into an American holiday village.

As we do not like eating in hotel restaurants we went into the restaurants and bars quarter in Sopot. There is an İstanbul Doner Place there. Of course we did not go there as we wanted to try the Polish cuisine. The one we chose was not so pretty and full of flies. Later we regretted not entering the döner restaurant. I was not the one who was complaining but members of the group who were Europeans.

TASAM and Wschodni are developing an idea to organize an economic forum this time most probably in the Ukraine. It is essential that they hold the forum just before the G-20 meeting in London as economy will surely put both Turkey an Europe in a fix very soon.

It was my first time in Poland. As we arrived in the country from the north we could not see Warsaw. Poles are very much interested in Turkey. Although we do not accept the fact that Turkey and Poland are similar countries in certain aspects it may be that we will have the opportunity to understand Poland more closely in the near future.

The state of affairs between Turkey and the European Union has become so complex that it has become impossible to understand what is going on. For years Turkey has been negotiating with the European Union for full accession. There are a total of 35 chapters to be negotiated. Two of them are related to E.U. institutions which cannot be touched. Talks for the remaining 33 chapters seem to be progressing at a snail’s pace. Each of the chapters have to be opened both by the Commission and each E.U. member country. If one of them vetoes the opening you cannot open that particular chapter. Nine chapters are waiting at the E.U. Council. Two of the seven chapters are blocked. Approximately once in every six months, one or two chapters are opened. If it goes on like this only, for nine years we are going to wait for all the chapters to be opened. How long the negotiations will last, nobody knows. But at least we are aware of the fact that until 2014 nothing will happen as the European Union has no money.

In 2013 the European Union will meet to discuss Turkey’s membership. Until 2019 the European Union will have to find the necessary money for Turkey’s possible accession. In the meantime the world has been hit by one of the strongest economic and financial crises during these recent months. As we are sitting in our seats comfortably saying, "Nothing will happen to us," all world leaders and parliaments are taking extraordinary measures to overcome the crisis. Huge amounts of money are being transferred into the system. Even capitalism is under scrutiny. Strong arguments about the system are going on.

The European Union has pushed aside the Barcelona and Lisbon processes with the decisions it took. The concern is about new social unrest. The rate of jobless is increasing rapidly especially in the West. The European Union has an amount of almost $3 trillion to apply emergency measures. The real economy sector as well as the financial sector is facing serious difficulties. The measures went as far as going against European Union decisions and bailing out banks for huge amounts of money. All banking bonds are now owned by the public sector. The process was against the Acquis but they found a loophole to do it.

Turkey is the seventh biggest partner of the European Union. Looking from the financial aspect maybe Turkey is even partner number three. More than half of Turkey’s foreign trade is with the European Union. More than half of Turkey’s gross domestic product, or GDP, comes from the European Union. Five million Turks live in the E.U. zone countries. The world is being hit by one of the most serious financial crises. But Turkey cannot discuss the issue with the European Union because the related chapter has been linked to the question of Cyprus.

Turkey’s minister is speaking at the meeting of the E.U.-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Commission and presenting a happy picture. On the other hand European parliamentarians are also happy about their part and say, "Good. Then go to the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, and talk to them." The Commission is a body in which Turkish and E.U. parliamentarians find the opportunity to have exchanges of opinion. It has worked for many years.

Our interlocutor, the E.U. Parliament, reveals no interest even with this joint commission. Even representatives of big political groups within the European Parliament are not represented in the joint commission. Turkey is doing nothing but discussing three or four issues with certain European parliamentarians. There are parrots on both sides who repeat whatever they have learned by heart for the last 36 years. When we say, "Let us organize a system in which we can be able to discuss economic issues and this global crisis by passing the chapters," nobody seems willing to do it. Turkey is not doing her reforms for the sake of gaining accession but for herself. The European Union on its part says, "Do your reforms and adopt the necessary legislation."

City tales say, "Negotiations for enlargement are mostly painful. All member countries have tasted them in the past." Soon Croatia will follow in the steps of Romania and gain accession. Even Bosnia Herzegovina and Macedonia’s accession chances are much stronger than Turkey’s.

Talk circulating around is about the IMF and the World Bank losing their influence and effectiveness. The European Union which has been crisis-tired during these recent months will have to check her situation once again. Otherwise there will be no stopping its difficulties. It is becoming more important what Turkey, that is a member of the G-20, will do in the coming five or 10 years. Turkey is known to continue on her way with both the European Union and IMF anchors for years. But it is becoming a possibility that Turkey may change her mind and abandon both anchors in the near future. Maybe that is why the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government is dragging its feet about taking all the necessary measures. As though it does not exist itself, the European Union is pushing Turkey toward the IMF. But the IMF is aware that it does not have the necessary amount of money Turkey needs. It is not clear what Turkey will do as she will have to pay back an amount of a $100 billion in outstanding debt in 2009.

Probably Turkey is preparing to take a strategic decision to part ways. If you cannot find the opportunity to discuss economic matters with your biggest partner then you have to find another solution.