Ergenekon will not end soon

One portion of society believes that the power of the opposition acting to "protect the Republic’s values" is trying to be eliminated. Another portion believes that those who want to force the Armed Forces to interfere by creating chaos in society are caught. Until now there were 10 or 11 waves of detentions. The overall expectation or belief is that we have come to the end of these waves. I don’t think so. My impression is that doors opened by the investigation with each detention and search will not be closed by saying "That’s enough now." I believe there will be a more important wave that we will face after a while. Speculations regarding Ergenekon are being watched with unease by even those who are involved in the investigations. But for different reasons "administrators of the case" keep quiet and confine to themselves by saying, "Now it’s the judges’s turn." But they should not forget that more questions arise. I don’t know what will come out of the second indictment. But data in the public’s eye so far does not suffice to draw a strict line between "just opposing the government or being a member of a criminal organization" and does not show concrete evidence. It would be great if new evidence and the new indictment soon to be announced replaces the weak element in the chain with a concrete link. Otherwise the Ergenekon investigation will not reach the expected result (at least where it was supposed to get).

AKP, on a split road to the EU
The most important indication that the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is on a split road regarding full membership in the European Union is that Egemen Bağış has been appointed as EU chief negotiator. This party seems to have two options: The first approach is to let the period pass while continuing to move slowly. The second is to start revival of operations in a serious way. It is not sure which of the options Egemen Bağış is hinting to accept. The AKP has put negotiations on hold since 2006 for unique reasons. Neither excitement nor severity is left on AKP’s side regarding this subject. With Abdullah Gül’s appointment to Çankaya it seems like the file has been put on the shelf. Mr. President may claim the opposite but he will not convince the Turkish public or experts in Brussels.

Bağış’s appointment as chief negotiator is in this respect pretty interesting. As if preparations have started for a new definition and the AKP will, after local elections, really surprise us all with new ventures in this matter. Files will be recovered from dusty shelves and bureaucracy activated. If the Prime Minister did not want to disturb today’s negotiation rhythm he wouldn’t have appointed Bağış. He would have preferred to walk along with Babacan. He would have succeeded in telling us that the Minister of foreign affairs does not have enough time left among all his duties for the EU. This slowed down motion also makes the EU happy. See, the Czechs also during the presidential elections have announced that they will try to submit two more topics for negotiations. It is understood that according to these calculations two topics are being presented during each presidential period (every six months). With this pace it will take the topics (if the green light is given for those on hold) until 2014 to arrive on the negotiation table. I perceive, or would like to do so, Bağış’s appointment as part of a decision to accelerate EU negotiations. I hope I’m not wrong.

Let’s not forget that firing this man is not easy from Erdoğan’s point of view. This decision was taken despite the risk of hurting Babacan, whom he likes and appreciates very much and despite the risk of objections and creating internal unease by taking away the responsibility of chief negotiator from the ministry of foreign affairs. People from many different circles in Ankara say that Bağış does not have good knowledge about the EU, he is pro-United States, and thus is not a good choice. I don’t agree.

The chief negotiator must have an excellent knowledge regarding the EU. His foremost strengths stir from his proximity to the person making decisions, being a good organizer and being gifted and balanced in negations. Bağış is very close to the Prime Minister and his political weight is based on his proximity to him. His ability to make bureaucracy and respective ministries work depends on support from the Prime Minister. What is left for him to reveal is his international knowledge and gift in negotiations, which, if lack thereof exists, he can cover up by bringing local and international experts with him. In the end everything revolves around the question whether or not the Prime Minister has really made a decision. If Erdoğan really is serious about fixing doubts and concerns in the minds of the people regarding his party pulling the country into a different direction, or if he is serious about keeping the promises he gave when his party came to power, then Bağış is the right choice. Bağış has the right gear to see this through. As long as the opposite is proven we will not withhold our support.