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Thinking strategically, talking tactically
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Recently I came across a Briton praising Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s heavy criticism of Israel’s assault in Gaza. "Someone has to come up and say something to the Israel," she said. I realized that Erdoğan had not only talked to the hearts and minds of all Turks, he also voiced the real feelings of a lot of people in the West and East alike.
Then I came across a Turkish friend. "Isn’t it weird," he told me, "Erdoğan talks about mediation. How can you mediate between two sides, while you are praising one side and slamming the other side? Even I who has no notion of diplomacy find this absurd."
The Justice and Development Party’s government is the best suited for a mediation effort between Israel and the Arabs. The AKP enjoys unprecedented respect from the Arab world. Although the AKP is less fond of Israel, it has been pragmatic enough to understand the strategic importance of Israel. The indirect talks initiated by Turkey between Israel and Syria demonstrate its diplomatic agility.
There has been serious progress in the talks and the Turkish side is frustrated that Israel’s operation has ruined the process.
The fact that Israel’s operation came just days after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert posed with Erdoğan arm in arm in Ankara has made Erdoğan furious. No one would have expected Israel to warn Turkey in advance of the operation. But it was his wish to come for a farewell visit to Turkey and at best, he could have canceled it. It was a big mistake on the part of Israel to go ahead with the visit. Had Erdoğan reacted differently, it would have damaged Turkey’s image in the Arab world.
Israel must also understand that it can not find a single soul in Turkey that can find the bloodbath in Gaza justifiable. Comparisons with the Kurdish issue is becoming irrelevant. Turkey can’t lecture us while it is bombing n. Iraq, say some Israeli circles. If some Israelis want to draw comparisons, then they should rather realize that Turkey has finally understood that terrorism can not be solved with military measures alone. While it is fighting the PKK, it is also trying to reconcile with its Kurdish people in order to stop PKK recruiting militants from the local population. While the Turkish jets were bombing targets in n. Iraq, the government started Kurdish broadcasting in state TV. Israel’s policy has done nothing but strengthen Hamas’s hand.
Hamas on the other hand obviously does not merit having such an open political support from Turkey. Just ask anybody in the world a list of countries that support or recognize the legitimacy of Hamas. Turkey will rank in the first five countries, after Iran and Syria. This obviously is casting doubt on Turkey’s long lasting alliance with the West as it is perceived to be breaking with Western policy. Obviously Turkey dose not need to follow Western policy line from A to Z. It might believe excluding Hamas is not the right policy. But rather than trying to give legitimacy to Hamas openly Turkey could make its point to its allies behind closed doors. Turkey should not forget that it is part of the Western alliance and that it needs the Jewish lobby in its relations with the West. When comes April, I can imagine the government instructing its Ambassador to Israel to mobilize the Israeli government to stop the Armenian initiatives in the U.S. Congress. I can hear some Israelis telling Turkish Ambassador to go talk to Hamas to lobby the Congress.
Erdoğan’s harsh statements against Israel, have certainly not gone unnoticed in Israel. The government in Israel has preferred to keep quiet. Not that Erdoğan’s words have not created resentment. Israel preferred to remain calm because a collision course and a public war of words with would have made the anti Ğ Israeli lobby happy. But I am sure Israeli government as well as the Jewish lobby in America will not forget these statements.
Erdoğan can remain assured that his sentiments are supported by millions in Turkey and in fact all over the world. But as the leader of a country he does not have the luxury of being the conscience of the street and speak emotionally. He has to weigh his words and never forget that it might have repercussions in the future. Alienating Israel does not make this country change its policies. Similarly giving open support to Hamas does not help the situation either.
Erdoğan needs to not just think strategically but also speak strategically.
The Justice and Development Party’s government is the best suited for a mediation effort between Israel and the Arabs. The AKP enjoys unprecedented respect from the Arab world. Although the AKP is less fond of Israel, it has been pragmatic enough to understand the strategic importance of Israel. The indirect talks initiated by Turkey between Israel and Syria demonstrate its diplomatic agility.
There has been serious progress in the talks and the Turkish side is frustrated that Israel’s operation has ruined the process.
The fact that Israel’s operation came just days after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert posed with Erdoğan arm in arm in Ankara has made Erdoğan furious. No one would have expected Israel to warn Turkey in advance of the operation. But it was his wish to come for a farewell visit to Turkey and at best, he could have canceled it. It was a big mistake on the part of Israel to go ahead with the visit. Had Erdoğan reacted differently, it would have damaged Turkey’s image in the Arab world.
Israel must also understand that it can not find a single soul in Turkey that can find the bloodbath in Gaza justifiable. Comparisons with the Kurdish issue is becoming irrelevant. Turkey can’t lecture us while it is bombing n. Iraq, say some Israeli circles. If some Israelis want to draw comparisons, then they should rather realize that Turkey has finally understood that terrorism can not be solved with military measures alone. While it is fighting the PKK, it is also trying to reconcile with its Kurdish people in order to stop PKK recruiting militants from the local population. While the Turkish jets were bombing targets in n. Iraq, the government started Kurdish broadcasting in state TV. Israel’s policy has done nothing but strengthen Hamas’s hand.
Hamas on the other hand obviously does not merit having such an open political support from Turkey. Just ask anybody in the world a list of countries that support or recognize the legitimacy of Hamas. Turkey will rank in the first five countries, after Iran and Syria. This obviously is casting doubt on Turkey’s long lasting alliance with the West as it is perceived to be breaking with Western policy. Obviously Turkey dose not need to follow Western policy line from A to Z. It might believe excluding Hamas is not the right policy. But rather than trying to give legitimacy to Hamas openly Turkey could make its point to its allies behind closed doors. Turkey should not forget that it is part of the Western alliance and that it needs the Jewish lobby in its relations with the West. When comes April, I can imagine the government instructing its Ambassador to Israel to mobilize the Israeli government to stop the Armenian initiatives in the U.S. Congress. I can hear some Israelis telling Turkish Ambassador to go talk to Hamas to lobby the Congress.
Erdoğan’s harsh statements against Israel, have certainly not gone unnoticed in Israel. The government in Israel has preferred to keep quiet. Not that Erdoğan’s words have not created resentment. Israel preferred to remain calm because a collision course and a public war of words with would have made the anti Ğ Israeli lobby happy. But I am sure Israeli government as well as the Jewish lobby in America will not forget these statements.
Erdoğan can remain assured that his sentiments are supported by millions in Turkey and in fact all over the world. But as the leader of a country he does not have the luxury of being the conscience of the street and speak emotionally. He has to weigh his words and never forget that it might have repercussions in the future. Alienating Israel does not make this country change its policies. Similarly giving open support to Hamas does not help the situation either.
Erdoğan needs to not just think strategically but also speak strategically.
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