Mehmet Ali Birand - English

Enough time has passed since the Gaza event. We are now able to make up a balance sheet for it even-tempered. The Gaza movement has not only in view of Israel brought some important developments but also influenced some balances in the region. Up until now we have seen even worse attacks conducted by Israel on Palestine but this time Gaza was different. Let’s take a look together at developments after Gaza: * In Israel the Hawks will be effective:

Elections on Tuesday were not surprising. As expected, those who used Gaza for internal politics won. Emerging coalitions will, no matter from which angle you look at it, consist of leaders who will favor less peace and more harshness. As CNN’s commentator Yalım Eralp puts it, it wasn’t peace that came out of the elections. On top of that, the vote distribution has not eliminated uncertainty but instead greatly increased the probability of another early election. 

* But Israel won’t be able to act as it pleases:

Soli Özel in his last article in the daily Sabah made a very correct evaluation in this matter. Israel is losing its "acting as it pleases" possibility that started when the Iranian shah was overthrown in 1979 and reached its peak with events on Sept. 11, 2001. You’ll remember when in Iran the Islamic revolution was successful, Israel’s security was entirely turned over to Washington. And the Sept. 11 event increased the dimensions of the strategic alliance between Israel and the United States. Muslim and fundamental pious terrorists hit the United States. Israel was struggling with the same terrorists. So they were sharing a common fate. Israel could now do whatever it wanted and took support by the United States for granted. Now the end of this period has come. From now on Israel cannot act how it pleases. It will not be able to do whatever it wants by disregarding international public opinion. 

* There won’t be peace without Hamas:

No matter how much anybody objects, Hamas has profited from the last event. Hamas was characterized as a simple terror organization but is now seen as the victim of this process. What’s further is that it has been understood there won’t be any peace without Hamas. And Hamas must have understood that it needs to take responsibility and act accordingly, and must have seen that it won’t get anywhere with disagreement with Fatah and the present split. 

* Turkey expanded its role:

Erdoğan’s aggression during Davos should be put aside. The incident was effective and resulted in an overall grade given for the prime minister’s general attitude. On the other hand, Turkey’s role in the region has expanded. Turkey has become an actor in the region as never before. It started to be taken seriously. Its opinion is asked. From now on its role of negotiator and facilitator will depend on some conditions that need to be fulfilled: like its power to influence HamasÉ a green light from WashingtonÉ no damage to relations with IsraelÉ accelerate negotiations with the European Union need to be fulfilled.

In summary, the Middle East will never be the same again.

I’m not as hopeless as Cemal

Hasan Cemal in his article in the daily Milliyet yesterday has touched on a very important issue. If I were to summarize, starting from Sept. 6 to 7 he outlines events since Susurluk including unsolved murder that have been covered up by the state and says that he does not believe these will ever be solved someday. In general this belief is shared by the public. It is believed that state leaders commit murder in the name of "protecting the state" and cause a lot of chaos but can never be called to account for it. It was true until recently. But the situation has started to change. Now, the perception has started to increase that someday someone will knock on doors and might call somebody to account.

We criticize the manner in which the Ergenekon case is conducted, the lack of proof against detainees and other boorish behavior but when we get to the bottom of it we see a series of abnormal organizations existing. Some individuals in this society have taken on the job in the name of the state and go about murder and create chaos. I am not as daunted as Hasan Cemal in this regard. Even if, like Susurluk, the Ergenekon case does not end with an expected resultÉ even if many years pass, someone will come out in the end and call somebody to account. Even if we are not the ones to do this, the ghosts of those who lost their lives will haunt us. This was the case in Argentina, in ChileÉ in FranceÉ and in GermanyÉ

There is no way out.

There are decisions that if taken in time are very effective. But if not taken in time the cost of these decisions increases and their effectiveness decreases. The best example for this we face is the development of the Kurdish issue. Try to remember. If you think of what we have been experiencing since Sept. 12 you’ll see what I mean. Politicians delegated the Kurdish issue in the 1970s and 80s to the military. It is only natural that they took up this problem by using their military logic. It started with the denial of the existence of Kurds and putting everything onto the forbidden list. It was forbidden to speak in Kurdish, to name children in Kurdish, to return Kurdish names to villages that had been formerly been Kurdish, to educate in Kurdish. It was that much of a restriction that one could not think of radio or TV in the Kurdish languageÉ Prohibited É prohibitedÉ prohibited.

This way we thought we could protect Turkey from splitting up.

What’s even worse is that in the Diyarbakır military prison incredible torture was carried out not only on political detainees but also on everyone who is not able to speak Turkish. Tens of detainees lost their lives. Delegates, business men and even ministers got their share of this torture. In those days there was not much seen of the PKK. We were not able to see the bonding of our citizens of Kurdish origin. We could not see that so much oppression was constrained and that one day it would burst. If we could have only taken a few simple steps and given up on at least some restrictions back in those days we would have decreased the effects of the explosion.Then the PKK came forward. We were surprised but we only addressed them on the level of terror. We were not able to see that they were feeding on a swamp that was deepening with our restrictions. We continued with our prohibitions. Again we did not take any steps. The PKK kept feeding on these restrictions providing an ease for them. And the PKK just like the state has introduced its own restrictions. They attacked villages and killed innocent people. But they said that what they did was in order to "have people realize the Kurdish identity." Those who were exposed to pressure believed this lie. The PKK progressively became popular with some groups of the Kurds. There came a day when we realized that we could not continue with these restrictions. But still we couldn’t help it.

Think back to the time when Öcalan was caught. You know those years when we missed out on the big chance. Remember Öcalan was caught and had instructed the PKK to leave Turkey which put down its weapons, and the region calmed down É It was exactly during that period when, under the influence of EU reforms, in view of the reality, we seemed as if accepting, even if unwillingly, the Kurdish existence and we postponed Öcalan’s execution but could not abandon restrictions, foremost the Kurdish language, altogether. We always took steps halfway. Reform acts passed congress but bureaucracy moved at a slow pace. We have seen numerous TRT general managers and encountered RTÜK chiefs claiming "I will not allow this country to be split."

Whereas it was the right time. If we had taken basic steps while Öcalan was in İmralı we would not be living through the terror events of today. So many people would not have died.

What happened next? Later we saw that there was no way out and were forced to take action. We had no possibility of preventing the Kurdish language. We created education possibilities. Please remember those days when Kurdish courses where in consideration. It was like a syndrome of splitting the country. What happened next? Not even Kurds considered these courses. Nowadays Bilgi University has accepted Kurdish lessons as an elective. TRT has started to air in the Kurdish language. Beside it was very much liked in the region.These were steps that were in the 1980s described as a crime worse than treason. But on second thought we found out that Turkey had not split because of the above. It has achieved a better position.

But we also saw that we were still not able to satisfy an important portion of Kurdish origin citizens. Steps taken today do not suffice. More is wanted. But the timing was missed.So what do we expect?We still do not act bravely enough. We still see the conviction of Kurdish origin parliamentarians as a prevention. We don’t even accept a protection shield provided by parliamentary privilege, as was seen in the Aysel Tuğluk case. We still cannot diagnose the swamp on which the PKK is feeding on. Again we are missing the timing. Somehow we don’t see or don’t want to see that the most important condition to escape this vicious cycle is political courage. Again we take it slow. Even though we know which steps to take, postponement suits our books.

Nobody wants to take political responsibility. Whatever happens, happens to the country. We are splitting into pieces. While trying to protect our Turkey from splitting, on the contrary we are pushing it in danger of splitting further.

There are some solid rules in politics that you cannot change no matter how hard you try. These rules apply everywhere in the world. No matter how honestly you work or whether you stick to rules it’s all in vain. If you are a leader or a politician at the forefront, then your family and foremost your children are in a difficult position. They are examined under the magnifying glass whenever their action involves money. Even if they don’t earn any money it is always said that they earn hand over fist.

 Even if nothing could be proven they’d be accuse with words like, "These people are so smart that they hide their embezzlement and it is impossible to uncover it."

The situation is even more severe in poor countries or countries that are governed by a dictatorship. It is impossible to make people believe the opposite because there was such fraud in the past. In rich democratic Western countries more tolerance exists but nevertheless children of politicians have always been looked upon with suspicion. People don’t distinguish between innocent or guilty, they put children of politicians in the same basket.

The partnership between Bilal Erdoğan-Sema Erdoğan and Cihan Kamer of Atagold took me to a time years ago. Check it out, it’s funny how much they earn but the issue is transforming into a huge fraud. The reason is their last name is Erdoğan. The public righteously has become suspicious. They are looking to find something beneath it. I’m not sure if you remember İsmet İnönü’s brother Ömer İnönü who inherited from his father a mining business but he could not escape being labeled a "thief." 

İnönü was known for being picky in matters of honor but still people used to talk about his brother. It was never proven but he was always accused. They put him through this and when he finally died people wrote, "We probably made a mistake, there was nothing behind it." Do you remember Turgut Özal’s two sons?

The most striking element for those who walk through European capitals and listen to popular sentiment is that Turkey’s star has started to shine again. The foremost reason is Turkey providing diversification alternatives in the energy sector. Russia cutting off gas to the Ukraine and as a result Europe encountering the danger of remaining in the cold reminded the European Union of the "importance to diversifying energy resources." It was understood that one day addiction to Russian gas might cost dearly. A new gas pipe line running through Turkey that feeds Europe would decrease the addiction to Russian gas. Also a gas-supply guarantee from Turkey, which is conducting membership negotiations with the EU, would provide an invaluable comfort to Europe.

The Nabucco project:

Turkey’s star suddenly shines
Beside all this Ankara attracted attention with its role in the Palestinian war, the recent Lebanon crisis and the conflict between Russia and Georgia. This has paved the way for realizing that in case Turkey leaves aside its former immobility and acts in unison with Europe it will provide important gains for the EU.

Things work this way. No matter how much you say or write it you’ll never convince them sufficiently. But there comes such a moment and such an event passes that people all of a sudden appreciate your value. If Russia had not started this crisis by trying to cash in on debt and getting tough on the Ukraine and keep the Ukraine under its influence, then with great possibility the Nabucco project would not have been discussed the way it is now. Options other than Turkey would have been considered and the value of Turkey’s position would not have been realized in a concrete way.

We have two choices
Let’s take a look at what will happen in the future. The prime minister holds his strongest joker in hand for just this purpose. I know how important Egemen Bağış is for Erdoğan. He trusts him and entrusts him with top secret jobs. By entrusting Bağış with this duty it is understood that he does not want to waste time. If his intention was to waste time he would have continued with Babacan and no one could say a word.

The acceleration of negotiations does not solely depend on steps Turkey will take. Turkey and Europe need to take steps together and simultaneously in order to provide improvement. If Turkey remains in its corner and waits hoping for "them to show good intention and encouragement" it won’t be any good. Alike, if the EU makes a face, waits for Ankara to take action, does not change its critical attitude, and Sarkozy goes back to his "Turkey is not Europe, why are we negotiating with them" attitude, we won’t get far. Action together is required. Egemen Bağış needs to play this role in act I scene I. He needs to convince both sides and provide coordination. Otherwise we would spend time to no result.

My expectation is that after local elections at the end of March, negotiations with the EU will accelerate. The most obvious sign for this will be the presentation of three or four topics instead of two for negotiations in the period to come.

If after local elections disinterest continues, if EU negotiations go at a slow pace and both sides take guard, I will completely surrender. I will believe that Erdoğan, as some already say, has fooled us and only entered relations with EU to show off and to make believe. To tell the truth, it is much easier to open a new page with the EU than procrastinate. Ignoring the EU would cost dearly especially for a party like the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP, which is under examination and whose criminal record increases. Beside it would not be very wise politics. But it would strengthen the party’s power to showing more effort and for example change the Constitution as to suit the EU membership. The party would in an international arena regain its former prestige. The only way for the AKP to diffuse doubts is to accelerate EU reforms, especially in recent times with the spread in Turkey and internationally of suspicion regarding the Islamization of Turkish foreign politics by the AKP.

After many years Turkey has discovered the Palestinian issue. Up until now Turkish diplomacy tried to stay away from this issue. Administrations kept saying how important this issue was, and that they would suffer with our Arab brothers, that they felt sorry for the Palestinians and would then get out of the situation by offering help. They would show just as much reaction as not to bother the United States but Israel and continue on their path. There was a reason why they behaved this way. They saw that the Arabs did not intend to solve this issue. To tell the truth, isn’t today’s situation the same?

Nobody can tell me that the Arabs are really looking for a solution, leaving aside disagreement among them, and taking action in order to end pain for Palestinians.

Without digging into details but taking a rough look at their disagreement we notice that the Arabs are split into two fronts:

The Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Jordan front is close to United States and Israel. In this front Egypt plays the major role and influences each decision. They accept Israel obtaining their rights but from a religious point of view they are extremely strict when it comes to splitting Jerusalem. Iran together with Hamas and Syria supporting Hezbollah form the second front. This front does not recognize Israel’s rights and requires a withdrawal from all occupied territories. Other Arab countries, depending on current conditions, take their place in either one of the two fronts. But these alliances change quite often. Just how these Arab countries are split Palestinians are split among themselves as well. Al Fatah and Hamas, like enemies, dig each other’s grave. This is such a hostility that while Israel’s bomb attacks in Gaza to destroy Hamas killed people over three weeks, Hamas militants enter houses of Al Fatah supporters and kill at least 20 of them, according to allegations.

Naturally, if such a split exists, Israel and the United States profit from this situation. When peace negotiations come to a dead end then on an international platform the bill is always paid by the Arabs. They don’t show any effort to fix disagreement among them. For they continue their fight over Palestine.

Actually underlying the fight over Palestine is a power struggle continuing among Iran and the Saudi Arabia-Egypt-United States triangle.

Erdoğan has just opened such a Pandora’s Box and let spirits escape. I can’t accept that the prime minister believes he could solve the Palestinian issue within his life time. For someone entering such a swamp it is unlikely to come out of the other side of the tunnel.

As long as the Arabs don’t settle their own accounts the Palestinian issue won’t be solved and I believe that the Arabs are not seriously willing to solve this issue.

Now we can ask this question together:

"Will the Arab countries that did not show as much reaction as Erdoğan take action in the future? Or be forced to take action because of public pressure or out of shame?"

The Middle East is ever so much full of intrigue that it is impossible for those in Ankara to survive on this slippery ground. Our Turkish minds work differently. For us there is black and white but no gray. Whereas in the Middle East there is only a game within another game.

Will Erdoğan be able take Hamas under control?

Many wonder, after Erdoğan’s huge efforts and steps full of risk, how Hamas will respond to these gestures. Because Erdoğan believes that Hamas should be taken seriously and be sat at a negotiation table, he is being called " Hamas’s advocate." I wonder if the prime minister will be able to convince Hamas to abandon terror and stop the daily bomb attacks on Israel?

I wonder if Hamas will make a gesture for Erdoğan? For example, would it set Israeli soldiers free upon Erdoğan’s request?

As I mentioned before, the Middle East is a region in which games are played within another game. Nobody knows what will be tomorrow or who will betray whom.

I especially don’t believe that the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, administration will be able to solve this chaos

It is a trend these days. Almost everyone refers to Turkish-Israeli relations as if they can be easily spoiled. Nobody takes into consideration that relations are connected to other balances. Everyone is cutting corners. Some say that ceasing relations with Israel will cost Turkey dearly. Some take it from Israel’s point of view and say Israel will suffer big losses.

Nobody behaves realistically.

The truth is that Turkey and Israel will not spoil their relationship. Neither Israel nor Turkey could run the risk of such an adventure.

Turkey is the most important guarantee for Israel. From the stand point of Israel, which is surrounded by the Arabs and lives in fear of a bombs or suicide attack, Turkey’s belief in Israel’s right to live and defending it is very vital. If Turkey, a giant in the region with 70 million inhabitants, turns its back then Israel’s insecurity would increase quite a bit. There is a reason that today Turkey is the country most visited by Israeli tourists (chartered or nonscheduled flights, up to 15 flights per day) after Germany. Trades between Turkey and Israel amounts to $4 billion, defense industry projects have reached $2 billion, and cooperation between the two militaries has come to an incredible point.

Israel cannot give up on Turkey.

Israel, too, is a country Turkey cannot give up on. A Turkey approaching Israel in a hostile way means a Turkey turning also its back on Washington and viewing the United States in a hostile way. No doubt about that. For the United States would not let Israel be influenced by anybody else. If need be, it would discard Turkey or its leaders, even though extremely important from a strategic point of view, but would not let Turkey treat Israel as an enemy. A Turkey that Washington turns its back on would loose its international credibility. Its extremely fragile economy would not survive. To step into such a situation would also mean to bid farewell to the European Union project. In a Turkey that approaches Israel in a hostile way, the Kurdish issue would start to be carried to different points. Beside the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, obtaining a great new opportunity, it would be very easy to establish an Independent Kurdish State in northern Iraq. Then Turkey would fit into the Iran-Russia-Syria triangle, as some circles most desire.

I could lengthen the list of how we could harm each other by basing relations on boorishness and miscalculations.

By the way, don’t think that our Arab brothers and Muslims around the world will surround us. A Turkey hostile to Israel and walking arm in arm with Hamas and Hezbollah, will not receive the expected support, foremost from Egypt, neither Saudi Arabia nor the Gulf countries. Calculations in the Middle East are so delicate that minds in Ankara would not understand them. Let’s not forget that what makes Turkey an interesting country during its efforts to join the EU is that it keeps relations with the United States tight. Otherwise we would not be any different from any other marginal Arab or Muslim country.

I believe that this Davos crisis will bring some advantages:

w Facts among the words spoken by Erdoğan will attract attention. Israel might be sat at a peace table and accept Hamas as an addressee, instead of ignoring them.

w Israel might become aware of things changing, after hearing from its best friend maybe in a shock treatment, how much reaction it received from the international public for its action in Gaza.

w The Turkish and Israeli public will realize how much they depend on each other and will be able to behave in a more cautious way from now on.

Prime Minister Erdoğan’s future steps will be examined under a magnifying glass.

Turkey will have to watch its relations with the United States and Israel much more carefully from now on. Also acceleration of reforms and negotiations with the European Union will be of increased importance.

If these steps are taken, balance will be brought to suspicion regarding Erdoğan Islamicizing Turkish foreign policies, changing Turkey’s priorities and estranging from the secularist-democratic system that emphasizes Western values. Otherwise this country will face chaotic days.

I am writing this article knowing that it will create reaction among Erdoğan’s supporters. The easy thing was just to applaud the prime minister and praise his heroism. I just couldn’t do it, for I know that the steps the prime minister’s will take from now on will affect our daily lives. If he takes the wrong steps, this country might become complicated and society poor. Let me tell you why É The prime minister’s spat at Davos has maybe set the streets in Turkey and the Arab world in motion and put Erdoğan’s pictures in many hands but let’s not forget that the Middle East has a short term memory, more than any place else. The ground is very slippery. People who are enemies today are best buddies the next day. Don’t be surprised if you see Israel and Hamas sitting at a table and smoking the peace pipe. Then those who play Nasserism will be let down. Even if they regret it after they lose there won’t be anything left to do. Those who cause revolt in the Middle East in the name of an efficient leadership will lose everything at hand. Please read the rest of the article with these facts in the back of your mind.

If the prime minister’s words in Davos were meant to be a message, and if there is no other politics or plan underlying this attitude, then we might say that the message was delivered. The Israeli government’s attention was attracted and it was very clearly stated at the ultimate level to the Israeli public and government how wrong the general attitude was, and that Hamas could not be left out, that they would not achieve anything by killing innocent people of Palestine. There has never been a better-delivered message.

Besides, if you pay attention, there is nothing new about Erdoğan’s words. "You know well how to kill," is an old saying. Those are slogans used in the 1970s and 1980s. These words have been spoken many times by others before. They have not created much effect. In general, Israelis are used to such harsh words.

They don’t make much of it. This time, when the same words came out of Erdoğan’s mouth, things changed. It caused an important echo in the Israeli public sphere and an earthquake among Israeli politicians. They could not tolerate these words because they were spoken by a Turkish prime minister.

Turkey’s importance in the eye of Israel has been revealed. The reason for taking it lying down and keeping its reactions within certain boundaries, arises from the importance which Israel attaches to Turkey. To lose Turkey would be a big shock for Israel. The prime minister is playing just this card. He says that Israel, in order not to lose Turkey, has to review its attitude. It’s a game full of risk.

We should not forget that a disarray of relations will cost Israel dearly and hurt Turkey just as much. The prime minister’s spat in Davos, has the Middle East in an uproar and is viewed as a new flag, just like the legendary leader Nasser from the 1950s. And this is the greatest danger of all. Taking the bait means to step into the biggest trap.

As you will remember, Nasser stirred up Arab nationalism and took millions from Iraq to Syria, Jordan to Saudi Arabia onto the streets against Israel. As in 1967 he prohibited the passage of Israeli ships through the Gulf of Aqaba a six-day-war broke out and the Arabs received their biggest defeat yet. Nasser’s political life came to an end. For Nasser started a movement which did not correspond to his real strength. He roused people in uproar for the sake of populism.

Politicians sometimes exaggerate their strength. They can’t see the truth. They think that they can change balances, take brave steps and break accustomed politics. But they forget that in order to do these they would have to carefully read the cards in hand and behave realistically. They don’t take into account that getting carried away by the magic of the street and brisk speeches won’t take them anywhere.

Let’s remember how after Menderes’s wink at Moscow he fell in spectacular fashion. Let’s not forget how İnönü fell shortly after his reaction to President Johnson’s letter during the 1964 Cyprus crisis expressed in his speech "A new world would be established and Turkey would find its place therein."

Let’s keep in mind how Ecevit’s statement during the U.S. embargo in 1978, saying, "I’ll cross over to the other side of the wall," received criticism later on during the Washington NATO summit form the German prime minister stating:

"Dear prime minister you overestimate the cards in your hand," and caused Ecevit to lose power shortly thereafter. After all these experiments I would like to say my final words:

w If the prime minister’s real intention is to create a new world, crossover to the other side of the wall then God speed him. But let’s not forget while doing this he will cause great harm to him and this country.

w If the prime minister’s real intention is to warn the Israeli government then it’s time to calm down. The message was delivered. From now on the broken pieces need to be put back together. As much as we protect Hamas, it’s time we force them to abandon terror.

Erdoğan should not forget that he is the prime minister of Turkey and his primary duty is to provide a happy existence and rich economy for the Turkish people.

Prime Minister Erdoğan has become in the Arab world the most applauded and will be a loved leader since Thursday night. In the days before us, this attitude will spread and Erdoğan carried on the shoulders of millions of people. Words will be spoken about the Ottoman era and Turkey finding its real place.

I’m sure Prime Minister Erdoğan will be carried on shoulders back in Turkey. He will be applauded as a giant leader next to our Arab brothers and a real friend. He will collect points as a hero and brave leader for his response to brisk criticism from the Israeli president.

But we should not forget that after a while the applause will subside gradually and Erdoğan’s gesture might even be forgotten one day. The Arabs will return to not embracing Turkey and Erdoğan’s deed will be forgotten.

The scene in Davos was very interesting.

To tell the truth, Erdoğan’s speech was well done. He touched on important points. He put forth righteous motives. But he exhibited such a reaction, deliberately or inadvertently, that the important balance in Turkey’s external politics was disturbed. Peres’s speech in itself also was bearing satisfactory elements. But Peres agitated Erdoğan with his way of speaking and acting. He merely spoke in a reprehending way. He stepped on Erdoğan’s sore spot. To tell the truth, Erdoğan stepped into this diplomatic trap. Maybe he remembered the situation Erbakan found himself in with Kaddafi.